Pacific Insider

 Papua New Guinea's Security,  Economic and Political Issues. 

From February 18 to 28, 2024 , several notable developments were reported in Papua New Guinea highlighting a range of Security, economic and political Issues. 

A. Security Issue

Massacare in Enga Province    

1. More than 50 dead bodies were retrieved by the members of Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary (RPNGC) and Papua New Guinea Defense Forces (PNGDF) following a gun battle between the two ethnic tribes in Wapenamanda Electorate of Enga Province in the Northern Remotest Highlands region of the PNG. 

2. The intense gun battle between the two ethnic rival erupted on Sunday February 18, 2024. According to local police , there were  high – powered weapons including military grade guns such as  self-loading rifles( SLR), M4 Machine guns, AR 15, M16s pump action shot guns and other deadliest weapons used in the fighting that  has claimed the lives of more than 50 armed tribesmen, devastated land and properties and caused displacement of more than 20, 000 native people in Wapenamanda Electorate of Enga Province.

3. Ethnic clashes and killings is an ongoing security issue in the Highlands region of PNG since the pre- colonial era. The main motives behind ethnic violence are over land dispute and natural resources. Due to civilization and human technology, the traditional warfare has shifted into a modern form of warfare involving the use of high powered ammunitions or rifles for tribal conflicts.

4. The recent massacre of 50 plus men and displacement of 20,000 locals has reached the attention of the global communities. It has alarmed the government of PNG to introduce terrorism legislation despite the looming political issue of the motion of no confidence for Prime Minister James Marape. Police Commissioner David Manning has confirmed that a Domestic Legislation on Terrorism to be presented in the parliament for discussion and approval by the 118 legislators of the country.  The legislation will strengthen law enforcement and capacity of security forces to intervene to prevent acts of domestic terrorism. 

5. Meanwhile, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has raised concerned about the fresh spate of violence in Enga , a province that has considerable Australian investors due to the recent re-opening of Porgera Mine which is the largest gold mine in PNG. In respond, Prime Minister James Marape revealed that based on PNG recently concluded security deal with Australia, there were plans to train up to 200 local special police units, similar to Australian Special Units to combat the rise of domestic rebels.

6. Prime Minister Marape in addition reveled that it’s a need for Special Police to combat domestic terrorism which he has expressed interests in adopting the Australian model, that include the use of deadly force when a security officer life is at risk . 

7. This deadliest violence in Enga Province underscore the need for PNG Government to seriously look into these four areas: enact terrorism act, tighten border security, implement guns control measures, and invest heavily in its internal security capacity to combat domestic terrorism and law and order crisis in the country.    

B. Economic Issue

Fuel Crisis 

1. On February 19 2024, the Country main fuel distributer Puma Energy has advised that it will stop its fuel supply in the country until further notice. This was the result of supply shortage Puma is experiencing.

2. Puma is experiencing supply shortage because there is a limited foreign exchange at the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) to support Puma purchase fuel at the global markets since 2022. 

3. In August 2023 the Managing Director of Puma Hulala Tokome, revealed that Puma has over US$ 100 million of outstanding invoices in FX. It needed to pay its supplies and has requested commercial banks and Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) to allocate necessary foreign exchange to repay its outstanding invoices in order to pay fuel at international markets. However, the issue has not been solve till now. 

4. As part of this process Puma has now issue termination notices to customers and will aim at renegotiate contracts with new terms for lower volumes. In the meantime remaining fuel stock in PNG will be allocated to emergency services and critical infrastructure as a priority until a long-term, viable solution can be in place to return the business to its fuel scale. 

5. The fuel shortages will potentially disrupt domestic flights and operations of businesses in the entire nation. In addition, state -owned and private companies operating in the country will be unable to purchase products from overseas markets because there is limited foreign reserve at BPNG.  

6. Furthermore, the National Department of health relies on foreign reserves  at the BPNG to purchase medical supplies overseas.  A shortage in Forex will cause a decline in medical supplies at local clinics including pharmacies. This might lead to a very serious health condition striking the citizen's of PNG.

7. In Summary such issues concerning national interests and welfares gives a strong grounds for the opposition to launch a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister James Marape. 

C. Political Issue

Motion of No Confidence 

1. The Opposition Camp have re-submitted a notice of the motion of no confidence to Parliamentary Business Committee (PBC) on 15 February 2024. A motion of no confidence for Prime Minister James Marape is looming as soon as the PBC approves it.  

2. Given the looming motion of no confidence James Marape is confident to remain as the Prime Minister based on Pangu   numbers tolled up to 57 after Milne Bay Governor resigned from the opposition and joined Pangu on 19 February 2024. 

3. The Number of the MPs at the opposition camp has potentially decreased to 22 but the Opposition Leader Douglas Toumouresa claimed that they opposition remain confident to launch a motion of no confidence for Prime Minister James Marape as soon as the PBC approved the motion notice.  

4. Possible if the PBC approves the motion of no confidence and the opposition launch it in Parliament, Marape has the highest probability to defeat the opposition based on the statistics. 

5. However, If the PM succeeds a vote of no confidence, that doesn’t mean he enjoys another 18 months grace period. This means the very next parliament sitting following a failed attempt at removing Marape, the opposition can continue to initiate  a motion of no confidence Until the 2 and half years is over. 

6. VONC are power games and required money to win it in the contex of PNG Politics. At the moment Marape is capable of defeating the opposition. The questions are will Marape continue to survive the VONC until July 2027? If Marape has survived will he get elected as the Prime Minister after the 2027 General Election to maintain political stability? 

7. In order for PM Marape to maintain his seat until 2027 and beyond, he needs to take leadership and seriously address the nation’s welfare. Some of the issues that has dramatically increased under the Marape regime includes breakdown of law and order, forex shortages, higher inflation and unemployment rate, fraudulent activities in programs like the Connect PNG and lack of foreign and domestic investors in the country due to higher crime rates.

8. Marape has the numbers but if he fail to address those underlying issues then people might put pressure for their open MPs to leave Pangu and form a new government. Nevertheless, those MPs that associated with Marape might not be voted again in the 2027 General Election. 

9. If Marape address those national issues now, he might potentially get elected again as the PM because voters might remain loyal to vote Pangu MPs in the 2027 Election.  If Pangu destroy its reputation now, it means less Pangu MPs might get elected to the parliament following the 2027 election. 

These are the underlying social, economic and political dynamics facing Papua New Guinea at the moment. Some issues could be solve within a short period of time by the current government while issues such as tribal killings, corruption and others are systematic and rooted within the cultures. Those systemic issues will need more time and strategic leadership to fix it.